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Bear Put Spread (Debit)

directional Capped loss

Advanced: a defined-risk bearish bet.

When to use it

Buy a put, sell a lower put. Profits if the stock falls; max loss is the net debit. Best in a confirmed downtrend.

Max profit

Strike width minus the debit paid.

Max loss

The net debit paid.

Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone ■ loss zone X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built

Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.

Hermes-evaluated setups

High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.

Ticker Win Rate Avg P/L Sharpe Trades DTE
RBRK 94% +$796 17.5 66 7
CIFR 94% +$831 18.8 57 21
CTRE 94% +$373 25.0 57 21
HGV 94% +$612 18.2 57 21
KOPN 94% +$450 43.4 57 21
PL 94% +$388 13.3 57 21
P 94% +$571 10.3 57 21
RDVT 94% +$665 15.7 57 21
VISN 94% +$426 25.8 57 21
WT 94% +$437 37.1 57 21
SOFI 94% +$795 23.9 57 21
HPQ 94% +$782 28.0 57 21
WFC 94% +$636 17.8 57 21
C 94% +$615 15.7 57 21
USB 94% +$711 27.1 57 21
PFE 94% +$320 16.1 57 21
BMY 94% +$242 14.4 57 21
CMG 94% +$697 18.2 57 21
CL 94% +$671 22.8 57 21
MDLZ 94% +$260 16.3 57 21
TJX 94% +$580 17.2 57 21
SLB 94% +$653 18.7 57 21
HAL 94% +$723 23.1 57 21
KMI 94% +$398 27.5 57 21
WMB 94% +$307 13.8 57 21
DOW 94% +$712 25.3 57 21
T 94% +$398 32.5 57 21
O 94% +$276 18.6 57 21
F 94% +$402 30.4 57 21
HYG 94% +$371 27.8 57 21
LQD 94% +$305 20.4 57 21
XLI 94% +$586 17.2 57 21
XLP 94% +$298 17.2 57 21
XLY 94% +$572 15.0 57 21
XLB 94% +$324 20.7 57 21
XLRE 94% +$337 22.0 57 21
XLC 94% +$663 20.1 57 21
EEM 94% +$323 18.8 57 21
EFA 94% +$266 16.4 57 21
FXI 94% +$296 16.6 57 21
XRT 94% +$583 17.1 57 21
XOM 94% +$496 13.9 57 21
KO 94% +$293 16.8 57 21
TLT 94% +$663 19.6 57 21
XLE 94% +$290 16.4 57 21
XLF 94% +$337 20.7 57 21
XLK 94% +$529 13.4 57 21
XLU 94% +$364 27.5 57 21
GEV 93% +$338 16.7 55 9
RDDT 93% +$1391 12.0 55 9

Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.