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Long Butterfly

neutral Capped loss

A cheap bet on a precise price target.

When to use it

You expect the stock to pin a specific price at expiry. Buy 1 lower, sell 2 middle, buy 1 upper strike. Very low cost.

Max profit

At the middle strike at expiry.

Max loss

The small net debit paid.

Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone ■ loss zone X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built

Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.

Hermes-evaluated setups

High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.

Ticker Win Rate Avg P/L Sharpe Trades DTE
V 94% +$359 24.8 57 21
JPM 94% +$311 14.9 57 21
TMO 94% +$445 96.3 57 21
MA 94% +$418 49.8 57 21
IWM 94% +$337 30.4 57 21
AMAT 94% +$381 26.0 57 21
ARKW 94% +$283 13.6 57 21
BKNG 94% +$305 16.3 57 21
CBOE 94% +$298 16.0 57 21
COIN 94% +$430 34.1 57 21
CPA 94% +$247 14.6 57 21
DASH 94% +$353 16.1 57 21
DLR 94% +$301 20.9 57 21
FFIV 94% +$356 18.9 57 21
GOOG 94% +$336 20.0 57 21
GS 94% +$431 53.8 57 21
HLT 94% +$340 22.5 57 21
COF 94% +$334 18.9 57 21
MDB 94% +$457 83.6 57 21
CAT 94% +$406 36.9 57 21
LLY 94% +$441 40.8 57 21
TSM 94% +$330 12.6 57 21
ASML 94% +$474 171.7 57 21
QCOM 94% +$345 19.0 57 21
SAP 94% +$319 15.6 57 21
SMH 94% +$367 19.5 57 21
XYZ 94% +$322 14.0 57 21
ZS 94% +$416 48.9 57 21
BRK-B 94% +$375 30.1 57 21
HD 94% +$400 48.4 57 21
CVX 94% +$280 15.9 57 21
ADBE 94% +$447 86.0 57 21
BABA 94% +$336 15.9 57 21
SHOP 94% +$331 14.7 57 21
TXN 94% +$347 24.3 57 21
KLAC 94% +$464 79.3 57 21
SNOW 94% +$421 41.9 57 21
NOW 94% +$345 20.3 57 21
DDOG 94% +$364 21.4 57 21
NET 94% +$362 18.8 57 21
ABNB 94% +$357 22.9 57 21
INTU 94% +$454 80.7 57 21
ADP 94% +$338 21.2 57 21
PDD 94% +$353 26.5 57 21
SE 94% +$344 13.7 57 21
BLK 94% +$461 127.6 57 21
AXP 94% +$366 23.5 57 21
BX 94% +$319 18.1 57 21
PNC 94% +$325 27.3 57 21
DHR 94% +$378 38.9 57 21

Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.