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Iron Condor

BEGINNER neutral Capped loss

Profit when a stock goes nowhere.

When to use it

Range-bound, low directional conviction, elevated IV. Sell a bull put spread AND a bear call spread. 21–45 DTE.

Max profit

Total net credit from both spreads.

Max loss

Wider wing width − net credit.

Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone ■ loss zone X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built

Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.

Hermes-evaluated setups

High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.

Ticker Win Rate Avg P/L Sharpe Trades DTE
IWM 92% +$18 1.9 84 14
TMUS 91% +$2 5.8 41 30
AXP 91% +$4 6.2 41 30
WMB 91% +$8 4.0 40 30
T 91% $0 0.5 95 7
CMCSA 91% +$1 10.0 37 14
LFVN 90% +$1 4.0 36 14
SO 89% +$1 2.9 49 7
GM 89% +$1 1.7 78 14
PSEC 89% $0 0.4 152 7
WT 89% +$1 6.6 31 7
SOFI 89% +$1 3.4 46 7
CMG 88% +$1 1.8 59 14
VISN 88% +$1 1.6 45 7
MSFT 88% +$4 1.0 83 21
DOMO 88% +$2 2.4 44 21
HYG 88% +$1 2.1 57 21
MCD 88% +$1 0.8 57 21
KLAC 88% +$2 0.8 57 21
REMX 88% +$2 0.6 157 7
CEVA 88% +$1 1.6 56 21
XLC 88% +$1 1.0 79 7
NOW 87% +$13 3.9 41 30
MAR 87% +$4 3.5 41 30
DVN 87% +$13 2.6 41 30
RBLX 87% +$9 2.3 41 30
EOG 87% +$13 2.1 41 30
V 87% +$35 2.4 41 30
BKNG 87% +$14 1.8 41 30
LNG 87% +$6 2.0 41 30
LIN 87% +$17 1.6 41 30
LULU 87% +$8 2.4 41 30
GILD 87% +$1 1.9 88 7
TLT 87% +$15 2.7 40 30
XBI 87% +$12 2.0 40 30
NIO 87% +$2 0.8 40 30
ADC 87% +$1 1.1 96 7
REPL 87% +$1 0.8 103 14
PL 87% +$3 1.8 50 14
GLW 87% +$1 1.5 50 14
GME 87% $-5 -0.3 102 7
RIVN 86% $-14 -0.4 37 30
SPY 86% +$11 1.4 59 30
VST 86% +$4 2.4 36 30
LRCX 86% +$7 2.0 57 21
DASH 86% +$3 0.9 57 21
TXN 86% +$6 0.5 157 7
KRE 86% $0 0.5 104 7
META 85% $-9 -0.5 228 7
MA 85% +$7 0.5 84 14

Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.