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Reverse Iron Condor (Long Vol)
volatility Capped lossAdvanced: a defined-risk bet on a big move in either direction.
When to use it
Buy an inner call+put spread, sell outer wings — a debit. Profits on a large move; naturally a lower win rate (pays premium up front). Good around catalysts.
Max profit
Inner-to-outer width minus the debit.
Max loss
The net debit.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNY | 96% | +$850 | 18.6 | 84 | 14 |
| UBER | 96% | +$785 | 15.4 | 84 | 14 |
| XBI | 96% | +$652 | 12.0 | 84 | 14 |
| DKNG | 96% | +$804 | 20.0 | 84 | 14 |
| WFC | 96% | +$814 | 17.4 | 84 | 14 |
| C | 96% | +$779 | 13.2 | 84 | 14 |
| SCHW | 96% | +$682 | 13.3 | 84 | 14 |
| USB | 96% | +$420 | 22.3 | 84 | 14 |
| ABT | 96% | +$624 | 12.2 | 84 | 14 |
| CVS | 96% | +$723 | 15.7 | 84 | 14 |
| MDT | 96% | +$752 | 18.5 | 84 | 14 |
| BSX | 96% | +$840 | 16.2 | 84 | 14 |
| SBUX | 96% | +$732 | 13.8 | 84 | 14 |
| PEP | 96% | +$695 | 13.8 | 84 | 14 |
| CL | 96% | +$360 | 13.4 | 84 | 14 |
| OXY | 96% | +$324 | 10.3 | 84 | 14 |
| DOW | 96% | +$415 | 20.3 | 84 | 14 |
| NEE | 96% | +$744 | 16.3 | 84 | 14 |
| DUK | 96% | +$775 | 21.3 | 84 | 14 |
| SO | 96% | +$386 | 16.5 | 84 | 14 |
| D | 96% | +$411 | 20.4 | 84 | 14 |
| AEP | 96% | +$765 | 18.0 | 84 | 14 |
| O | 96% | +$450 | 38.5 | 84 | 14 |
| GM | 96% | +$797 | 17.6 | 84 | 14 |
| LQD | 96% | +$460 | 28.9 | 84 | 14 |
| XLY | 96% | +$700 | 13.9 | 84 | 14 |
| XLC | 96% | +$850 | 25.1 | 84 | 14 |
| ARKK | 96% | +$734 | 12.7 | 84 | 14 |
| EFA | 96% | +$422 | 18.4 | 84 | 14 |
| IBB | 96% | +$642 | 12.1 | 84 | 14 |
| XRT | 96% | +$736 | 17.3 | 84 | 14 |
| KRE | 96% | +$345 | 15.3 | 84 | 14 |
| ITB | 96% | +$600 | 11.6 | 84 | 14 |
| XOM | 96% | +$749 | 14.3 | 84 | 14 |
| JNJ | 96% | +$712 | 13.2 | 84 | 14 |
| PG | 96% | +$736 | 14.3 | 84 | 14 |
| MRK | 96% | +$679 | 12.9 | 84 | 14 |
| TLT | 96% | +$353 | 11.9 | 84 | 14 |
| XLK | 96% | +$788 | 14.9 | 84 | 14 |
| XLV | 96% | +$728 | 15.6 | 84 | 14 |
| CEVA | 96% | +$846 | 20.1 | 83 | 14 |
| BMY | 96% | +$412 | 20.7 | 83 | 14 |
| MDLZ | 96% | +$416 | 25.2 | 83 | 14 |
| TJX | 96% | +$289 | 10.5 | 83 | 14 |
| RTX | 96% | +$754 | 12.2 | 83 | 14 |
| ALK | 96% | +$861 | 22.6 | 82 | 14 |
| GILD | 96% | +$834 | 14.9 | 82 | 14 |
| DVN | 96% | +$805 | 15.1 | 82 | 14 |
| HAL | 96% | +$424 | 20.7 | 82 | 14 |
| CMG | 95% | +$388 | 13.9 | 81 | 14 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.