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Bear Call Credit Spread
directional Capped lossDefined-risk bearish income.
When to use it
Bearish or capped at resistance. Sell a call near the money, buy a higher call as a wing. ~45 DTE.
Max profit
Net credit received.
Max loss
Spread width − net credit.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COF | 81% | +$74.00 | 2.9 | 43 | 21 |
| COP | 84% | +$65.00 | 3.3 | 31 | 30 |
| DHR | 84% | +$61.00 | 3.6 | 31 | 30 |
| ASML | 81% | +$54.00 | 1.3 | 63 | 14 |
| MRNA | 85% | +$53.00 | 3.1 | 43 | 21 |
| FDX | 83% | +$50.00 | 3.8 | 30 | 30 |
| UPS | 85% | +$48.00 | 3.3 | 43 | 21 |
| SHOP | 81% | +$42.00 | 2.2 | 43 | 21 |
| ARKK | 81% | +$42.00 | 2.5 | 43 | 21 |
| RDVT | 83% | +$36.00 | 2.0 | 30 | 30 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.