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Bear Put Spread (Debit)
directional Capped lossAdvanced: a defined-risk bearish bet.
When to use it
Buy a put, sell a lower put. Profits if the stock falls; max loss is the net debit. Best in a confirmed downtrend.
Max profit
Strike width minus the debit paid.
Max loss
The net debit paid.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMAC | 89% | +$1,828.00 | 25.4 | 32 | 17 |
| RDDT | 93% | +$1,391.00 | 12.0 | 55 | 9 |
| ETHA | 93% | +$1,270.00 | 73.7 | 52 | 8 |
| CIFR | 94% | +$831.00 | 18.8 | 57 | 21 |
| RBRK | 94% | +$796.00 | 17.5 | 66 | 7 |
| SOFI | 94% | +$795.00 | 23.9 | 57 | 21 |
| HPQ | 94% | +$782.00 | 28.0 | 57 | 21 |
| NIO | 86% | +$736.00 | 8.5 | 57 | 21 |
| KC | 87% | +$724.00 | 10.5 | 41 | 30 |
| HAL | 94% | +$723.00 | 23.1 | 57 | 21 |
| DOW | 94% | +$712.00 | 25.3 | 57 | 21 |
| USB | 94% | +$711.00 | 27.1 | 57 | 21 |
| WMT | 91% | +$698.00 | 13.9 | 57 | 21 |
| CMG | 94% | +$697.00 | 18.2 | 57 | 21 |
| KWEB | 91% | +$688.00 | 14.8 | 57 | 21 |
| DOMO | 91% | +$682.00 | 10.4 | 57 | 21 |
| CL | 94% | +$671.00 | 22.8 | 57 | 21 |
| IREN | 87% | +$671.00 | 7.6 | 52 | 21 |
| SNAP | 84% | +$668.00 | 7.1 | 41 | 30 |
| GDX | 91% | +$668.00 | 10.8 | 57 | 21 |
| GLW | 91% | +$667.00 | 12.5 | 40 | 30 |
| RDVT | 94% | +$665.00 | 15.7 | 57 | 21 |
| XLC | 94% | +$663.00 | 20.1 | 57 | 21 |
| TLT | 94% | +$663.00 | 19.6 | 57 | 21 |
| SLB | 94% | +$653.00 | 18.7 | 57 | 21 |
| RIOT | 88% | +$652.00 | 8.5 | 57 | 21 |
| SMR | 86% | +$650.00 | 7.0 | 49 | 21 |
| NBIS | 93% | +$640.00 | 10.5 | 50 | 7 |
| WFC | 94% | +$636.00 | 17.8 | 57 | 21 |
| DVN | 91% | +$615.00 | 11.2 | 57 | 21 |
| C | 94% | +$615.00 | 15.7 | 57 | 21 |
| HGV | 94% | +$612.00 | 18.2 | 57 | 21 |
| GILD | 91% | +$593.00 | 10.4 | 57 | 21 |
| XLI | 94% | +$586.00 | 17.2 | 57 | 21 |
| XRT | 94% | +$583.00 | 17.1 | 57 | 21 |
| TQQQ | 91% | +$582.00 | 9.4 | 57 | 21 |
| GM | 88% | +$581.00 | 7.7 | 57 | 21 |
| TJX | 94% | +$580.00 | 17.2 | 57 | 21 |
| CEVA | 91% | +$577.00 | 13.4 | 41 | 30 |
| POWL | 86% | +$573.00 | 5.5 | 57 | 21 |
| KRE | 91% | +$573.00 | 17.5 | 41 | 30 |
| XLY | 94% | +$572.00 | 15.0 | 57 | 21 |
| P | 94% | +$571.00 | 10.3 | 57 | 21 |
| OXY | 88% | +$571.00 | 8.3 | 57 | 21 |
| INTC | 87% | +$565.00 | 11.8 | 40 | 30 |
| WLDN | 88% | +$565.00 | 6.9 | 57 | 21 |
| BSX | 91% | +$558.00 | 9.9 | 57 | 21 |
| CVS | 91% | +$556.00 | 9.7 | 57 | 21 |
| NEM | 88% | +$555.00 | 8.2 | 57 | 21 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.