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Long Butterfly
neutral Capped lossA cheap bet on a precise price target.
When to use it
You expect the stock to pin a specific price at expiry. Buy 1 lower, sell 2 middle, buy 1 upper strike. Very low cost.
Max profit
At the middle strike at expiry.
Max loss
The small net debit paid.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEV | 93% | +$561.00 | 19.1 | 55 | 9 |
| ASML | 94% | +$474.00 | 171.7 | 57 | 21 |
| KLAC | 94% | +$464.00 | 79.3 | 57 | 21 |
| REGN | 94% | +$462.00 | 142.0 | 57 | 21 |
| EQIX | 94% | +$461.00 | 149.1 | 57 | 21 |
| BLK | 94% | +$461.00 | 127.6 | 57 | 21 |
| MDB | 94% | +$457.00 | 83.6 | 57 | 21 |
| INTU | 94% | +$454.00 | 80.7 | 57 | 21 |
| ADBE | 94% | +$447.00 | 86.0 | 57 | 21 |
| TMO | 94% | +$445.00 | 96.3 | 57 | 21 |
| ULTA | 94% | +$443.00 | 77.1 | 57 | 21 |
| LLY | 94% | +$441.00 | 40.8 | 57 | 21 |
| CHTR | 94% | +$441.00 | 62.7 | 57 | 21 |
| LULU | 94% | +$436.00 | 65.1 | 57 | 21 |
| HUM | 94% | +$434.00 | 76.2 | 57 | 21 |
| PH | 94% | +$434.00 | 57.9 | 57 | 21 |
| DE | 94% | +$431.00 | 67.1 | 57 | 21 |
| GS | 94% | +$431.00 | 53.8 | 57 | 21 |
| COIN | 94% | +$430.00 | 34.1 | 57 | 21 |
| UVXY | 93% | +$430.00 | 19.5 | 48 | 21 |
| SQQQ | 94% | +$429.00 | 19.3 | 57 | 21 |
| ISRG | 94% | +$429.00 | 50.5 | 57 | 21 |
| NOC | 94% | +$424.00 | 45.5 | 57 | 21 |
| SNOW | 94% | +$421.00 | 41.9 | 57 | 21 |
| MA | 94% | +$418.00 | 49.8 | 57 | 21 |
| ZS | 94% | +$416.00 | 48.9 | 57 | 21 |
| VRTX | 94% | +$412.00 | 32.8 | 57 | 21 |
| LMT | 94% | +$410.00 | 37.9 | 57 | 21 |
| CAT | 94% | +$406.00 | 36.9 | 57 | 21 |
| HD | 94% | +$400.00 | 48.4 | 57 | 21 |
| LIN | 94% | +$394.00 | 39.0 | 57 | 21 |
| CI | 94% | +$393.00 | 38.7 | 57 | 21 |
| ARM | 89% | +$393.00 | 21.4 | 31 | 21 |
| SYK | 94% | +$389.00 | 44.7 | 57 | 21 |
| BA | 94% | +$389.00 | 53.9 | 57 | 21 |
| AMAT | 94% | +$381.00 | 26.0 | 57 | 21 |
| APD | 94% | +$378.00 | 35.5 | 57 | 21 |
| DHR | 94% | +$378.00 | 38.9 | 57 | 21 |
| BRK-B | 94% | +$375.00 | 30.1 | 57 | 21 |
| ETN | 94% | +$372.00 | 20.3 | 57 | 21 |
| CEG | 90% | +$368.00 | 12.8 | 36 | 30 |
| SMH | 94% | +$367.00 | 19.5 | 57 | 21 |
| MAR | 94% | +$367.00 | 30.2 | 57 | 21 |
| MRNA | 91% | +$366.00 | 13.0 | 41 | 30 |
| AXP | 94% | +$366.00 | 23.5 | 57 | 21 |
| MSTR | 91% | +$366.00 | 12.3 | 41 | 30 |
| AMGN | 94% | +$365.00 | 24.4 | 57 | 21 |
| DDOG | 94% | +$364.00 | 21.4 | 57 | 21 |
| LOW | 94% | +$363.00 | 29.8 | 57 | 21 |
| NET | 94% | +$362.00 | 18.8 | 57 | 21 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.