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Iron Butterfly
neutral Capped lossAdvanced: a higher-credit, tighter cousin of the iron condor.
When to use it
Sell an ATM call and put, buy protective wings. Collects a large credit but needs the stock to pin near the strike. Defined risk.
Max profit
The net credit, if price pins the body at expiry.
Max loss
Wing width minus the credit.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 87% | +$550.00 | 6.1 | 40 | 30 |
| APD | 91% | +$515.00 | 5.7 | 57 | 21 |
| AMGN | 91% | +$502.00 | 6.7 | 40 | 30 |
| CAT | 94% | +$488.00 | 7.4 | 57 | 21 |
| ADP | 94% | +$455.00 | 5.1 | 57 | 21 |
| V | 87% | +$450.00 | 6.5 | 41 | 30 |
| SNOW | 94% | +$447.00 | 8.6 | 57 | 21 |
| NUE | 91% | +$438.00 | 7.6 | 40 | 30 |
| ULTA | 88% | +$424.00 | 9.1 | 57 | 21 |
| BX | 91% | +$423.00 | 5.7 | 41 | 30 |
| ZS | 91% | +$393.00 | 10.1 | 40 | 30 |
| DDOG | 87% | +$385.00 | 7.1 | 40 | 30 |
| ROST | 91% | +$379.00 | 5.1 | 40 | 30 |
| DASH | 91% | +$371.00 | 7.5 | 40 | 30 |
| EQIX | 91% | +$370.00 | 8.7 | 57 | 21 |
| SYK | 94% | +$370.00 | 12.0 | 57 | 21 |
| BLK | 91% | +$361.00 | 8.2 | 57 | 21 |
| DLR | 91% | +$359.00 | 6.5 | 40 | 30 |
| HD | 91% | +$358.00 | 15.8 | 40 | 30 |
| UPS | 91% | +$357.00 | 5.9 | 40 | 30 |
| HLT | 91% | +$349.00 | 6.0 | 57 | 21 |
| JPM | 91% | +$347.00 | 7.3 | 40 | 30 |
| VLO | 86% | +$345.00 | 5.2 | 57 | 21 |
| ETN | 94% | +$342.00 | 7.4 | 57 | 21 |
| FTNT | 87% | +$339.00 | 7.5 | 40 | 30 |
| SAP | 87% | +$330.00 | 5.4 | 40 | 30 |
| SMH | 91% | +$324.00 | 9.1 | 40 | 30 |
| NBIS | 86% | +$322.00 | 4.3 | 36 | 10 |
| BKNG | 94% | +$321.00 | 5.4 | 57 | 21 |
| AFRM | 91% | +$320.00 | 5.2 | 40 | 30 |
| XOP | 87% | +$305.00 | 6.3 | 40 | 30 |
| COIN | 94% | +$302.00 | 6.2 | 57 | 21 |
| DE | 87% | +$299.00 | 8.2 | 40 | 30 |
| MA | 83% | +$298.00 | 8.8 | 40 | 30 |
| TXN | 86% | +$296.00 | 6.4 | 57 | 21 |
| HUM | 91% | +$295.00 | 8.8 | 57 | 21 |
| TSM | 83% | +$292.00 | 6.2 | 40 | 30 |
| DG | 87% | +$289.00 | 8.1 | 40 | 30 |
| ABBV | 94% | +$289.00 | 6.5 | 57 | 21 |
| LRCX | 87% | +$283.00 | 5.2 | 40 | 30 |
| SPG | 94% | +$280.00 | 5.1 | 57 | 21 |
| STRL | 83% | +$277.00 | 3.5 | 57 | 21 |
| MMM | 91% | +$270.00 | 6.6 | 40 | 30 |
| DIS | 91% | +$268.00 | 8.8 | 41 | 30 |
| VXX | 88% | +$268.00 | 4.0 | 57 | 21 |
| SOXL | 87% | +$268.00 | 4.4 | 40 | 30 |
| ADBE | 91% | +$267.00 | 7.0 | 40 | 30 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.