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Iron Condor
BEGINNER neutral Capped lossProfit when a stock goes nowhere.
When to use it
Range-bound, low directional conviction, elevated IV. Sell a bull put spread AND a bear call spread. 21–45 DTE.
Max profit
Total net credit from both spreads.
Max loss
Wider wing width − net credit.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMO | 92% | +$60.00 | 9.8 | 43 | 21 |
| VXX | 84% | +$43.00 | 3.2 | 31 | 30 |
| DDOG | 92% | +$37.00 | 7.4 | 43 | 21 |
| HD | 89% | +$33.00 | 10.2 | 31 | 30 |
| SPY | 88% | +$29.00 | 1.2 | 117 | 7 |
| ASML | 85% | +$25.00 | 1.6 | 43 | 21 |
| LOW | 84% | +$25.00 | 1.9 | 31 | 30 |
| VOO | 86% | +$25.00 | 1.1 | 117 | 7 |
| NKE | 83% | +$24.00 | 2.5 | 30 | 30 |
| OXY | 84% | +$23.00 | 4.5 | 31 | 30 |
| XOP | 84% | +$22.00 | 2.4 | 31 | 30 |
| ABBV | 81% | +$22.00 | 1.7 | 43 | 21 |
| CME | 88% | +$21.00 | 2.4 | 43 | 21 |
| GD | 84% | +$21.00 | 1.8 | 31 | 30 |
| XBI | 84% | +$20.00 | 3.3 | 31 | 30 |
| QQQ | 92% | +$20.00 | 9.4 | 43 | 21 |
| TXN | 88% | +$20.00 | 2.0 | 43 | 21 |
| PEP | 85% | +$19.00 | 2.0 | 43 | 21 |
| STRL | 85% | +$19.00 | 1.7 | 43 | 21 |
| ABNB | 81% | +$19.00 | 1.0 | 43 | 21 |
| ADBE | 83% | +$19.00 | 1.7 | 30 | 30 |
| AMGN | 88% | +$18.00 | 1.3 | 43 | 21 |
| LNG | 89% | +$18.00 | 8.7 | 31 | 30 |
| NDX | 82% | +$18.00 | 0.8 | 60 | 14 |
| CI | 81% | +$17.00 | 1.1 | 43 | 21 |
| SMCI | 84% | +$16.00 | 3.3 | 31 | 30 |
| QCOM | 84% | +$16.00 | 2.0 | 31 | 30 |
| COP | 89% | +$16.00 | 7.6 | 31 | 30 |
| MSTR | 88% | +$16.00 | 2.5 | 43 | 21 |
| TMUS | 81% | +$15.00 | 1.3 | 43 | 21 |
| HLT | 85% | +$15.00 | 1.2 | 43 | 21 |
| MA | 88% | +$14.00 | 1.1 | 43 | 21 |
| SNOW | 85% | +$14.00 | 0.6 | 63 | 14 |
| AMD | 84% | +$14.00 | 2.1 | 31 | 30 |
| XOM | 89% | +$14.00 | 8.9 | 31 | 30 |
| MSFT | 84% | +$14.00 | 1.4 | 31 | 30 |
| ULTA | 85% | +$14.00 | 1.0 | 43 | 21 |
| AMAT | 88% | +$14.00 | 1.8 | 43 | 21 |
| RTX | 88% | +$14.00 | 3.2 | 43 | 21 |
| GILD | 84% | +$14.00 | 2.6 | 31 | 30 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.