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Iron Condor
BEGINNER neutral Capped lossProfit when a stock goes nowhere.
When to use it
Range-bound, low directional conviction, elevated IV. Sell a bull put spread AND a bear call spread. 21–45 DTE.
Max profit
Total net credit from both spreads.
Max loss
Wider wing width − net credit.
Payoff at expiry
illustrative shape — not to scale
■ profit zone
■ loss zone
X axis = stock price at expiry →
How it's built
Strikes shown low→high. Sell = collect premium · Buy = pay premium for protection or upside.
Hermes-evaluated setups
High-conviction per-ticker applications — setups with a confidence-adjusted win rate ≥ 80% over ≥20 backtested trades (95% lower bound — honest for the sample size, never a raw 100%). Avg P/L is the mean profit/loss per one-contract position.
| Ticker | Win Rate | Avg P/L / contract | Sharpe | Trades | DTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | 87% | +$35.00 | 2.4 | 41 | 30 |
| BRK-B | 84% | +$27.00 | 1.3 | 41 | 30 |
| PEP | 83% | +$24.00 | 2.3 | 40 | 30 |
| XYZ | 81% | +$23.00 | 1.1 | 57 | 21 |
| GSHD | 80% | +$23.00 | 1.6 | 40 | 45 |
| CEG | 83% | +$18.00 | 1.2 | 73 | 14 |
| IWM | 92% | +$18.00 | 1.9 | 84 | 14 |
| LIN | 87% | +$17.00 | 1.6 | 41 | 30 |
| COF | 84% | +$17.00 | 0.8 | 41 | 30 |
| TLT | 87% | +$15.00 | 2.7 | 40 | 30 |
| FDX | 81% | +$14.00 | 0.7 | 41 | 30 |
| BKNG | 87% | +$14.00 | 1.8 | 41 | 30 |
| EOG | 87% | +$13.00 | 2.1 | 41 | 30 |
| NOW | 87% | +$13.00 | 3.9 | 41 | 30 |
| HLT | 83% | +$13.00 | 0.8 | 57 | 21 |
| DVN | 87% | +$13.00 | 2.6 | 41 | 30 |
| CVX | 81% | +$12.00 | 0.7 | 41 | 30 |
| ARKK | 81% | +$12.00 | 1.1 | 41 | 30 |
| XBI | 87% | +$12.00 | 2.0 | 40 | 30 |
| SNOW | 83% | +$11.00 | 1.0 | 57 | 21 |
| XOM | 81% | +$11.00 | 1.0 | 41 | 30 |
| SPY | 86% | +$11.00 | 1.4 | 59 | 30 |
| GD | 81% | +$10.00 | 0.9 | 41 | 30 |
| MMM | 83% | +$10.00 | 0.7 | 57 | 21 |
| DTE | 82% | +$10.00 | 0.7 | 83 | 21 |
| LOW | 82% | +$9.00 | 0.6 | 84 | 14 |
| RBLX | 87% | +$9.00 | 2.3 | 41 | 30 |
| TSM | 81% | +$9.00 | 0.5 | 84 | 14 |
| COP | 84% | +$9.00 | 1.9 | 41 | 30 |
| WMB | 91% | +$8.00 | 4.0 | 40 | 30 |
| ASML | 85% | +$8.00 | 0.5 | 157 | 7 |
Backtested results are not a guarantee of future performance.